Sunday, 8 December 2019

Tunbridge Wells Constituency General Elections 1885-2019

I don't know if Tunbridge Wells has always had a Conservative or a Unionist MP but it has been at least since 1885, except for 1906.  Until 1910 the Liberal Party came a close second or won in 1906 and during the 1950s the Labour Party also came close to winning the seat.  From the 1980s until 2010 Lib-Dems had been second but they have moved to 3rd or 4th place whilst the Labour Party had been gaining ground again since the end of the 1980s.

The 2019 General Election timing was chosen by the Conservative prime minister for best advantage for that party, with help of the Lib-Dem leader and despite having fixed term parliaments.  Generally, electors rejecting coalition of any sort despite, Michael Heseltine, John Major, Tony Blair and others recommending something like that.   Locally the Lib-Dem's gained by heavy leafleting (the number of trees lost did not count against them) despite the usual trend but Labour fielded a candidate with an out of the constituency address.

There was a short time when Conservatives did not run Tunbridge Wells Borough Council and Kent County Council in the 1990s.  You can also see the inevitable downward trend in Labour voting in General Elections when Labour was in power this effect is not apparent in Conservative voting in general elections.  Conservatives vote for other party's some making a point of voting Labour in local elections when they don't like what their party is doing nationally.  Also in Local Elections from 1990 Labour followed an upward trend but in General elections the trend fitted the pattern I suggested and the trend was downward whilst Labour was in government.

Observations from looking at the data and discussion;

Before WW1 - General Elections probably happened when members chose to step aside.  So there was a more gradual change - the system seemed fairer but that the franchise was only for men with property. 

We could do with both the franchise widened plus that voters all getting to vote without problems.  We could do with the media to behave better or be shut down completely.  I am sure people feel they got it wrong because they listen to the media so don't vote next time.  


The 2019 election;

Conservatives have been winning elections for the past 30 years by promising to leave the EU to a minority but not delivering that promise.  This has been a good strategy for them because their is no other party likely to carry out leave.

Even if we never have another Labour government.  Momentum, Jeremy Corbyn and his team have inspired a considerable number of people to get into politics for the good.   People of an alternative viewpoints voted who have never voted in 40 years.   The Labour opposition have high success rate in opposing successfully many of the a very nasty party's measures.   That nasty party could not change but instead beat its own MPs in to line.  Perhaps even Mrs May wanted change but there were Conservatives who said the last 40 years were a mistake - in this election campaign.  That has been said across party's for a few decades.

Lib-Dem leader gave this election to the Conservatives by letting them chose when it wanted an election.  Of cause the Conservative government chose before Brexit so that Leave campaign did much of the work.  The outcome though is that all party's followed Labour's look after the little people promises in there manifesto's.  Still I am not expecting Boris Johnson to be a Socialist in Wolves clothing?


Mistake of the environmental campaign in the 1990s may now be overcome;

The Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament were very effective taking care not to divide amongst themselves on strategy.  The old guard from the 1960s guided new member's well from 1979 when Cruise Missiles and Theatre nuclear war was being deployed for in the UK and Europe.  In the 1990's the environmental groups divided and criticise strategy's.  They employed advocates rather than environmentalists and activists.  The environment, social rights and other things than self interest have started to inspire more young adults again.  

Presentation prepared for; Extinction Rebellion London University's Strand the Strand event in September 2019 that was broken up by the police. Based professor Keith Barnham's book, The Burning Answer;


The young people must not give up - they share the same enthusiasm that people now over 85  had in 1945.  The 2019 Labour Manifesto was more easily achievable and exciting however they voted.  The manifesto did not have the an anti-nuclear war policy that the 1980s Labour manifestos had despite that policy having been supported now by the public for the past 20 years.

References;

1885-1910 Tunbridge constituency;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunbridge_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

1916 No general election due to World War 1.  Term reduced to 5 years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_general_elections

1918-1970 Tonbridge Constituency.  Franchise widened to Women and people without property.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tonbridge_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

1974-2018 (present) Tunbridge Wells Constituency

BBC 2019 election results.

Turn out percentage for 1956 found in a government document found on the web.  The figure looks correct for the given the poll.

Post General Election Momentum and The Labour Party - this video might be deleted?
https://www.facebook.com/JeremyCorbynMP/videos/448002489199292/

Pre-election warning - I am in any-case very surprised out how well Labour and Momentum did inspiring people mostly younger voters but also voters over age 85 who remember how it was before the NHS.   Those now very old voters liked the manifesto seeing simply a 1945 Labour manifesto.
https://bsnews.info/the-plot-to-keep-corbyn-out-of-power/?fbclid=IwAR1pDEGO_HaBgVQSuIImFUn05AAgTOsOZ0YSov24NRk6EzOguftXQwObA4Y


5 comments:

  1. https://www.pressenza.com/2017/12/jeremy-corbyn-noam-chomsky-win-peace-prize-amid-media-silence/?fbclid=IwAR1BzqVfFB1eDKBC-p0WMThnk25g7hvIjaYh-7vDSp3-OorhBs6_VU9LXsU

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  2. The basic rot comes from the tabloid media - Also people buy it and enough of those have moved to a nasty place nastier than where most MPs want to carry out. This is the problem.

    No one under 80 years old knows what it was like before the NHS my mum does she thought the Labour manifesto was wonderful. Mum is 86 but still, she reads the Mail and consequently does not like Corbyn. On the other hand, she's always had high regard for Michael Foot.

    Those Momentum people that have been inspired must not be dispersed. They include people inspired who had not voted in 40 years.

    Those that rise up and lead are selected to thrive or wither by a wealthy establishment. Gandhi inspired because Britain wanted to get out of governing India with least hassle. So what Blair says and did appease the media bosses and get elected is correct but the cost is dreadful because then Momentum is lost. Time is wrong for New Lib-Dems Labour or something else just now.


    The people who like war won the election it is profitable. They also would have kept conflict in Ireland going, Palestine and many more wars.

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  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  4. On Nuclear weapons and war the Green and SNP were the only party's showing any opposition to those and neither party were represented in Tunbridge Wells. The Labour manifesto was a restatement of status quo with much in common with what the Conservative party discussed in the past and meant by not wanting to be the nasty party. The so called radical parts were not in the Labour manifesto see link below;

    https://www.medact.org/2019/blogs/2019-manifesto-analysis/

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  5. This YouGov poll of Labour members and supporters opinion of the Labour Party and different aspects of that party is, not surprisingly, quite different to what the media tell us;

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/01/21/five-more-things-we-discovered-about-labour-member?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=Labour_Members_Jan_2020_extra

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